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FX largely indifferent to the improving US equity picture

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Shares of Amazon remain 10% lower but the market isn’t taking it as a sign of a weak consumer. Instead, the 7% rally in Apple shares is proving that one of the FAANG names still has life.

The S&P 500 has extended gains to 1.3% with the Nasdaq up 1.3%

A big part of the Apple bull case is that currency conversion is heavily weighing on the company’s results. A bet on Apple is a bet that the dollar will weaken from here.

Meanwhile, the dollar is generally stronger today and particularly against the yen. USD/JPY is up 125 pips to 147.51 and continues to hang around the best levels of the day. That’s despite US 10-year yields falling back below 4%.

So what is the case for a dollar top? Looking at the Dollar Index, the momentum has been stopped. After a non-stop rally all year, the pair has spend the last five weeks consolidating. That could simply be a rest before another leg higher but it will depend on what the Fed signals on rates next week and how the US economy performs.


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